Space has a dark side – will we use it for good or bad?

It’s hard to believe that there hasn’t been a person on the moon since 1971. It may have taken more than 50 years, but NASA’s Artemis program is looking to repeat the feat of Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin, and others with a new moon mission in the near future (and this time, hopefully, female astronauts will moonwalk alongside men). But ever political, lunar exploration is no longer a two-horse race between the US and Russia. Hot on their heels for lunar exploration are countries such as China and India.

Meanwhile, two of the world's most powerful men, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, are engaged in their own space race.

We talked to Shahida Barick, a space specialist with over 25 years’ experience in the industry, who previously served as Senior Operations Consultant for Europe’s navigation programme, Galileo, at the European Space Agency (ESA), Deputy Operations Director for the British military communications satellites Skynet 5B and 5C at Airbus, and European Space Business Lead for L3Harris Technologies, to understand what will shape space in the next decade. Now an independent consultant, Barick discussed how this race may play out, and what the commercialisation of the night skies really means. She talks about the benefits that the satellite industry can bring, how it is already helping to run our digital lives, and offering insights against threats such as global warming and food shortages.

In conversation with TFD, she also has a warning. Space, rather like the moon, has a dark side and can be used for bad as well as good.

We can do incredible things in space, but it is also a place where we can potentially do bad things, and we should be amplifying the message around space as a place. for good.
Shahida Barick

For those who know of the sci-fi series Star Trek, space is and always will be known as the “final frontier”. In terms of exploration, we have come a long way since the TV series aired in the 1960s, and we have a lot further to go in the next 10 years, thinks Barick.

Satellites now fill our skies; in low Earth orbit are satellites such as Starlink, making their way like a train around the night sky, providing 4.6 million customers with internet access. In this same orbit is the International Space Station, while in mid and high Earth orbit are satellites that enable GPS and others that observe weather patterns.

Our lives are becoming increasingly dependent on them, Barick told TFD.

“We can’t really use our mobile phones without PNT (Positioning, Navigation, and Timing). Banking cannot survive without satellites, and our defence capabilities on land, air, and sea are dependent on satellite connectivity and data. Without satellites, our world would absolutely come crumbling down,” she said.

Transforming farming

In the next decade, as global warming increasingly threatens our security on Earth, we will rely on them even more, she predicted.

“Observation satellites will play a greater role in enabling global monitoring of things like deforestation, pollution levels, the status of the ice caps, and sea levels. Climate technology is arguably the most important thing we are doing in space today.”

She predicts that in the next decade these satellites will transform the farming and fishing industries, as well as leading to a proliferation of firms that are harnessing satellite data and extrapolating information from them for a range of industries and organisations.

The International Space Station may not yet travel to other galaxies as the Starship Enterprise did, but it is doing crucial work as it orbits the Earth many times each day. And the experiments being performed by the astronauts on board are already helping communities back on Earth.

“We are constantly looking at earthly problems, in terms of drought, clean water, or bacterial disease. What we are unable to do on Earth, we can do in space because the conditions are completely different with zero gravity,” said Barick.

“One example among many is about how they are monitoring how algae, bacteria, and other chemicals interact in order to understand the process of creating never-ending supplies of oxygen, water, and food. And here on Earth, they are using that knowledge to grow algae and bacteria to create food for villages in Congo.”

Digital divide

It is estimated that one-third of the global population (some 2.6 billion people) still do not have internet access, and innovative satellite systems such as Elon Musk’s Starlink and Jeff Bezos’s Project Kuiper will play a crucial role in closing that digital divide in the next 10 years, she predicts.

But it comes at a price. Of the estimated 10,000 active satellites in orbit currently, most belong to Elon Musk, and that is a fact that Barick finds more than a little worrisome.

“Starlink has changed the technological landscape completely, but the likes of Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are very powerful individuals, and when we have oligarchs in control of the powerful technology that has the capability to change people’s lives, then we are in very dangerous territory.

“I would say regulation, regulation, regulation. And I would recommend that the government really look into their supply chain model. If we diversify the supply chain, we curtail the amount of power and access Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have to government contracts.”

The satellites that are now crowding our skies need a method of getting into space in the first place, and here too, Musk and Bezos have led the innovation, with SpaceX and its much-praised reusable rockets winning the race, but Bezos’s Blue Origin snapping closely at his heels with similar technology.

The majority of space debris was created by three nations – the US, Russia, and China – and so it is incumbent upon those governments to work in partnership to support research and development to clear it up.
Shahida Barick

My rocket is bigger than yours

Reusable rockets mean costs come down considerably, said Barick.

“It means you can put more in space and then we can do more on Earth because of the data that will afford us. So, technologically, SpaceX and Blue Origin are marvellous, but the geopolitics around it is somewhat destabilising given the nature of the characters who are leading these organisations,” she said.

The huge increase in space activity will lead to an increase in space junk, an issue that is concerning many and one that needs to be addressed, said Barick.

“The majority of space debris was created by three nations – the US, Russia, and China – and so it is incumbent upon those governments to work in partnership to support research and development to clear it up,” she said.

“We have two companies here in the UK who are designing innovative technologies. One to grab debris, another to push it into the atmosphere so that it burns up, and we have data centres that allow us to monitor far more precisely how many pieces of debris we have. One of the best things we can do is regulate how we use space better, and then we will have a higher chance of preventing new debris fields.”

Star Wars

And on that question of using space better, Barick has a grim warning. Space may become not just the final frontier for exploration but also for war in the next decade.

“We are used to thinking of space in the context of Star Trek or perhaps Star Wars, and folks going into space to better humanity’s understanding of other planets. And that is true, but the flip side is that we can also use it to help monitor what’s going on,” she added.

Many nations now have spy satellites in orbit, which allow them to watch what their rivals are doing in both peacetime and during war. The US and China have satellites in the skies above the Indian Ocean, for example.

Even Trump’s bizarre claim on Greenland may become a battle that is fought in the skies.

“The climate crisis has led to the Arctic ice melting, which has opened up sea lanes in the high North and enabled the movement of Russian and Chinese vessels who are beginning to use Arctic sea lanes for both commercial and military reasons,” explained Barick.

“What gives us a forensic level of detail into what is going on there are surveillance satellites in the high north, and they need to relay the data to ground stations based in places like Greenland.”

While the next ten years will see changes in geopolitics on Earth, they will also bring much innovation in space, she thinks.

Trip to Mars?

“Space companies are beginning to integrate AI and machine learning onto their systems because it allows for better decision-making and better autonomous operations. It introduces efficiency and greater safety that can lead to higher profit margins and cost benefits.”

She also sees a move away from the traditional large geo-stationary satellites that can cost many multiples of millions towards proliferated satellite constellations such as Starlink.

“The benefits are lower cost, rapid deployment, higher mission flexibility, and when used in large formations, they can foster greater resilience to threats. An example of this architecture can be seen with the work the US Space Force has undertaken in procuring missile warnings with missile defence satellites in both low Earth and mid Earth orbits.”

Of all the plans for the next decade in space, Musk’s desire to colonise Mars is perhaps one of the most ambitious and intriguing.

And while it may resonate perfectly with the Starship Enterprise’s mission “to boldly go where no man has gone before”, is it realistic or even desirable?

“No,” said Barick decisively. “I have no desire to spend two years in close proximity to a handful of people, to visit a planet we should not exploit.